The panelists voted on each other's predictions by holding up two-color paddles, with the green side facing forward for agreement and red facing forward for disagreement. The audience voted by holding up either red or green squares of paper.
First-timer Ann Winblad of Hummer Winblad Venture Partners made the least popular prediction in saying corporate-software makers Microsoft, Oracle and SAP would lose their dominance of the $100 billion enterprise applications market during the next 36 months. Emerging competitors will use open source software and online software delivery, Winblad believes, to offer low-cost alternatives. All the paddles on the stage flashed red, except for Jurvetson, and the audience showed almost no green.
Winblad got much more traction with her second prediction, that design would count more than ever in consumer products such as MP3 players, mobile phones and laptop computers. Consumers are becoming less interested in the technical details of such personal devices and more interested in how they look and what kind of statement they make.
McNamee added that U.S. consumer technology companies need to focus on ``aspirational products,'' such as Apple's elegant iPod line, where desirable design justifies a higher selling price, because Americans can't compete on price alone with low-cost mass-market products from China and elsewhere in Asia.
One of the more precise predictions came from Jurvetson, who said voice calls would become free when placed over the Internet and would become the ``killer app'' for municipal wireless networks. WiFi cordless phones, just now hitting the markets, will bring free calling in homes that have broadband Internet service and a wireless network, and anywhere within a city that has outdoor WiFi service. Cupertino, Mountain View, Santa Clara and Sunnyvale already have or will soon have such municipal WiFi networks. In five or 10 years, Jurvetson concluded, we'll barely remember the days when we received monthly phone bills.
「Draper Fisher JurvetsonのSteve Jurvetson氏の予測の1つは、音声通話はインターネットにより無料となり、それは市営ワイヤレスネットワークのキラーアプリになるというものだ。市場で注目を集めるWiFiコードレス電話は、家庭内および屋外WiFiサービスにより、無料通話を可能とする。Cupertino市, Mountain View市, Santa Clara市そしてSunnyvale市では、近日中に市営ワイヤレスネットワークが敷設される。Jurvetson氏は、5年乃至10年後、我々は通話料の月々の請求書を受領していた日々を忘れるだろうと締め括った。」
Schoendorf flashed the red side of his paddle, however, questioning how well such systems would work and asking the audience, ``How many of you had a dropped cellular call in the last week?''